【高値掴み注意】S&P500指数、割高の犯人とそれを避ける買い方は?

分析方法

現在(2021年5月1日時点)あまりにも高騰しているS&P500指数です。どこまで高騰しているのか、色々調べてみましょう。

S&P500指数が割高??

S&P500指数の上がり方を見ると、あまりにも伸び方が急だと思いませんか?これまで右肩上がりだったS&P500ですが、2020年になり更に急に伸びています。コロナの底だった2228USDと比べても、倍近い数値になってしまいました、たったの1年で!

Trading Viewより取得

でも経済が実際に成長しているのなら、割高じゃないって事になります。経済成長を見る為に、こんどは割高性を見ましょう。

割高性の指標として、PERに注目しましょう。現在2021年5月1日の実績PER39.76倍は、あまりに高い水準です。かなり割高になっています。

PERは株価÷一株利益なので、利益がでていないのに株価ばかり吊り上がると、PERは跳ね上がる事になります。現在は過去10年に有り得ない位の高水準、それが実績PER39.76倍なのです。

実績PERでなく、予想PERの推移です。下記の通り、この10年の平均は16、5年平均は18でしたからね。これは予想PERなのですが。

factset.comより2021年5月1日アクセスして取得

どうして現在の市場平均自体が割高なのか?

でも疑問が湧きますよね。どうして現在のS&P500指数が割高すぎるのか?

それは一部の大企業が割高となっていて、それらが割高になっている可能性があります。

そもそもS&P500指数というのは、だいたい米国の時価総額上位500社です(実際は時価総額ベスト500くらいで、基準をみたしたものだけです)。そして選ばれし500銘柄(現在は505銘柄)の、時価総額に比例して合計されています。

例えばはTOPはもちろん時価総額世界一のAppleで、じつに6%を占めます。GAFAMを合計すると21%をも占めています。もしもこれらGAFAMが割高だったなら、それだけでかなりS&P500の割高性を跳ね上げてしまいます。

※なぜGAFAMだけで21%越なのか、下記の構成割合を参照下さい。

現在のS&P500指数の構成割合(2021年5月現在)

こちらが全てとなります。

【下記構成割合データの元】
●構成銘柄リスト・割合➡➡Slickcharts
●構成銘柄のセクター➡➡英語版Wikipedia
から取得しました(上記リンクに、2021年5月1日アクセスしたときのデータ)

あまりに多いのでクリック
#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSector実績
PER
1Apple Inc.AAPL5.910605    131.52Information Technology38.72
2Microsoft CorporationMSFT5.34397    252.20Information Technology34.37
3Amazon.com Inc.AMZN4.169166    3,467.48Consumer Discretionary65.97
4Facebook Inc. Class AFB2.224082    324.65Communication Services27.84
5Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL2.01915    2,355.00Communication Services31.36
6Alphabet Inc. Class CGOOG1.965323    2,412.75Communication Services32.12
7Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class BBRK.B1.485208    274.95Financials
8Tesla IncTSLA1.458706    710.00Consumer Discretionary710.86
9JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM1.328814    153.59Financials
10Johnson & JohnsonJNJ1.21115    163.00Health Care
11Visa Inc. Class AV1.127269    233.25Information Technology
12NVIDIA CorporationNVDA1.066409    600.07Information Technology
13UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedUNH1.065283    398.31Health Care
14Home Depot Inc.HD0.982814    323.22Consumer Discretionary
15Mastercard Incorporated Class AMA0.957053    382.20Information Technology
16Walt Disney CompanyDIS0.944137    186.20Communication Services
17Procter & Gamble CompanyPG0.915735    133.49Consumer Staples
18PayPal Holdings IncPYPL0.880363    263.01Information Technology
19Bank of America CorpBAC0.8765    40.52Financials
20Comcast Corporation Class ACMCSA0.723538    56.17Communication Services
21Exxon Mobil CorporationXOM0.700258    57.36Energy
22Adobe Inc.ADBE0.694232    508.34Information Technology
23Verizon Communications Inc.VZ0.665676    57.70Communication Services
24Intel CorporationINTC0.664533    57.52Information Technology
25Netflix Inc.NFLX0.63266    513.80Communication Services
26AT&T Inc.T0.627259    31.35Communication Services
27Cisco Systems Inc.CSCO0.6097    50.91Information Technology
28Pfizer Inc.PFE0.604209    38.65Health Care
29salesforce.com inc.CRM0.603597    230.32Information Technology
30Abbott LaboratoriesABT0.601618    120.44Health Care
31Coca-Cola CompanyKO0.590582    53.94Consumer Staples
32Chevron CorporationCVX0.577921    103.23Energy
33PepsiCo Inc.PEP0.557297    144.16Consumer Staples
34AbbVie Inc.ABBV0.549544    111.41Health Care
35Walmart Inc.WMT0.543251    139.89Consumer Staples
36Wells Fargo & CompanyWFC0.536474    45.05Financials
37Broadcom Inc.AVGO0.534195    456.01Information Technology
38Merck & Co. Inc.MRK0.523207    74.56Health Care
39Accenture Plc Class AACN0.520704    289.97Information Technology
40Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.TMO0.513219    470.23Health Care
41Medtronic PlcMDT0.497496    130.97Health Care
42McDonald’s CorporationMCD0.492149    236.29Consumer Discretionary
43Texas Instruments IncorporatedTXN0.479896    180.71Information Technology
44NIKE Inc. Class BNKE0.475507    132.62Consumer Discretionary
45Costco Wholesale CorporationCOST0.46404    372.09Consumer Staples
46Danaher CorporationDHR0.456424    253.00Health Care
47Qualcomm IncQCOM0.454875    138.80Information Technology
48Honeywell International Inc.HON0.437014    223.01Industrials
49Citigroup Inc.C0.432556    71.26Financials
50NextEra Energy Inc.NEE0.424732    77.52Utilities
51Linde plcLIN0.424551    285.84Materials
52Union Pacific CorporationUNP0.421976    223.32Industrials
53Philip Morris International Inc.PM0.415587    95.14Consumer Staples
54United Parcel Service Inc. Class BUPS0.41118    204.00Industrials
55Lowe’s Companies Inc.LOW0.407096    196.40Consumer Discretionary
56Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY0.406756    183.00Health Care
57Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyBMY0.395433    62.41Health Care
58Oracle CorporationORCL0.394917    75.75Information Technology
59Amgen Inc.AMGN0.380437    239.50Health Care
60Starbucks CorporationSBUX0.378734    114.49Consumer Discretionary
61Boeing CompanyBA0.363265    234.09Industrials
62International Business Machines CorporationIBM0.361723    141.95Information Technology
63Raytheon Technologies CorporationRTX0.353379    83.48Industrials
64Morgan StanleyMS0.352242    82.85Financials
65Applied Materials Inc.AMAT0.348673    132.75Information Technology
66Caterpillar Inc.CAT0.348106    228.20Industrials
67Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS0.340832    348.16Financials
68Deere & CompanyDE0.331081    371.50Industrials
69BlackRock Inc.BLK0.329601    819.30Financials
70General Electric CompanyGE0.325051    13.13Industrials
713M CompanyMMM0.323495    196.70Industrials
72Intuit Inc.INTU0.319808    410.65Information Technology
73American Tower CorporationAMT0.312294    255.00Real Estate
74Charles Schwab CorporationSCHW0.301173    70.40Financials
75Target CorporationTGT0.291506    207.49Consumer Discretionary
76Booking Holdings Inc.BKNG0.287549    2,468.00Consumer Discretionary
77Intuitive Surgical Inc.ISRG0.285155    862.19Health Care
78Advanced Micro Devices Inc.AMD0.284799    81.40Information Technology
79American Express CompanyAXP0.283167    152.21Financials
80CVS Health CorporationCVS0.281057    76.55Health Care
81ServiceNow Inc.NOW0.278023    508.98Information Technology
82Micron Technology Inc.MU0.27642    86.10Information Technology
83Fidelity National Information Services Inc.FIS0.271391    152.90Information Technology
84Charter Communications Inc. Class ACHTR0.265903    673.45Communication Services
85S&P Global Inc.SPGI0.265276    390.39Financials
86Anthem Inc.ANTM0.263254    379.39Health Care
87Lockheed Martin CorporationLMT0.263103    380.01Industrials
88Lam Research CorporationLRCX0.257059    621.00Information Technology
89Cigna CorporationCI0.247089    249.01Health Care
90Altria Group IncMO0.243076    47.76Consumer Staples
91Stryker CorporationSYK0.241968    262.63Health Care
92Mondelez International Inc. Class AMDLZ0.241384    60.89Consumer Staples
93Prologis Inc.PLD0.241297    116.53Real Estate
94TJX Companies IncTJX0.240647    71.00Consumer Discretionary
95Zoetis Inc. Class AZTS0.232727    173.03Health Care
96U.S. BancorpUSB0.230287    59.35Financials
97Crown Castle International CorpCCI0.227515    190.35Real Estate
98Truist Financial CorporationTFC0.226583    59.31Financials
99Automatic Data Processing Inc.ADP0.226262    186.99Information Technology
100Gilead Sciences Inc.GILD0.225133    63.60Health Care
101PNC Financial Services Group Inc.PNC0.225111    186.95Financials
102T-Mobile US Inc.TMUS0.219679    132.21Communication Services
103CSX CorporationCSX0.216538    100.75Industrials
104Duke Energy CorporationDUK0.214745    100.69Utilities
105Chubb LimitedCB0.214165    171.59Financials
106CME Group Inc. Class ACME0.205254    201.99Financials
107Becton Dickinson and CompanyBDX0.205016    248.81Health Care
108Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class AEL0.202595    321.00Consumer Staples
109ConocoPhillipsCOP0.201996    51.20Energy
110FedEx CorporationFDX0.201889    290.31Industrials
111General Motors CompanyGM0.201159    57.18Consumer Discretionary
112Activision Blizzard Inc.ATVI0.20023    91.45Communication Services
113Norfolk Southern CorporationNSC0.198445    279.24Industrials
114Fiserv Inc.FISV0.197543    120.15Information Technology
115Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.MMC0.193931    135.70Financials
116Southern CompanySO0.193217    66.22Utilities
117Capital One Financial CorporationCOF0.192328    149.00Financials
118Colgate-Palmolive CompanyCL0.190082    81.30Consumer Staples
119Illinois Tool Works Inc.ITW0.186628    230.46Industrials
120Sherwin-Williams CompanySHW0.185615    273.87Materials
121Intercontinental Exchange Inc.ICE0.185509    117.71Financials
122Autodesk Inc.ADSK0.182824    291.90Information Technology
123Global Payments Inc.GPN0.181657    219.73Information Technology
124Air Products and Chemicals Inc.APD0.18151    288.48Materials
125Dominion Energy IncD0.17866    78.81Utilities
126Equinix Inc.EQIX0.176947    721.61Real Estate
127Boston Scientific CorporationBSX0.175391    43.85Health Care
128Edwards Lifesciences CorporationEW0.168712    95.52Health Care
129Progressive CorporationPGR0.167591    100.90Financials
130Illumina Inc.ILMN0.163754    393.98Health Care
131Analog Devices Inc.ADI0.163581    153.36Information Technology
132Eaton Corp. PlcETN0.162019    143.47Industrials
133Humana Inc.HUM0.161886    445.24Health Care
134Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX0.157175    37.71Materials
135Ecolab Inc.ECL0.156855    224.12Materials
136Emerson Electric Co.EMR0.156249    91.23Industrials
137NXP Semiconductors NVNXPI0.15607    193.10Information Technology
138Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedVRTX0.154561    218.95Health Care
139Northrop Grumman CorporationNOC0.153258    355.10Industrials
140Aon Plc Class AAON0.151744    251.44Financials
141HCA Healthcare IncHCA0.150237    201.06Health Care
142Waste Management Inc.WM0.149875    138.09Industrials
143Moody’s CorporationMCO0.149001    326.71Financials
144Dollar General CorporationDG0.147736    214.75Consumer Discretionary
145Twitter Inc.TWTR0.145797    55.28Communication Services
146Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.REGN0.143302    481.50Health Care
147KLA CorporationKLAC0.141117    316.34Information Technology
148Newmont CorporationNEM0.139949    62.31Materials
149MetLife Inc.MET0.135925    63.63Financials
150Dow Inc.DOW0.134092    62.53Materials
151IDEXX Laboratories Inc.IDXX0.132484    546.85Health Care
152Roper Technologies Inc.ROP0.131314    446.44Industrials
153Ross Stores Inc.ROST0.131062    130.94Consumer Discretionary
154TE Connectivity Ltd.TEL0.128315    134.47Information Technology
155Johnson Controls International plcJCI0.127912    62.34Industrials
156IQVIA Holdings IncIQV0.126397    234.69Health Care
157Kimberly-Clark CorporationKMB0.125811    133.32Consumer Staples
158EOG Resources Inc.EOG0.124353    73.65Energy
159General Dynamics CorporationGD0.124098    189.43Industrials
160Ford Motor CompanyF0.123488    11.53Consumer Discretionary
161Exelon CorporationEXC0.122999    44.94Utilities
162American Electric Power Company Inc.AEP0.122766    88.76Utilities
163Align Technology Inc.ALGN0.122119    596.00Health Care
164HP Inc.HPQ0.121974    34.19Information Technology
165Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class ACTSH0.121152    80.40Information Technology
166Baxter International Inc.BAX0.120983    85.69Health Care
167L3Harris Technologies IncLHX0.120699    209.23Industrials
168Sysco CorporationSYY0.120565    84.73Consumer Staples
169Public StoragePSA0.119298    281.16Real Estate
170American International Group Inc.AIG0.118775    48.45Financials
171Electronic Arts Inc.EA0.118123    143.49Communication Services
172Microchip Technology IncorporatedMCHP0.117811    150.67Information Technology
173DuPont de Nemours Inc.DD0.117731    77.21Materials
174Trane Technologies plcTT0.11749    173.83Industrials
175Digital Realty Trust Inc.DLR0.117463    154.31Real Estate
176Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.CMG0.11718    1,490.90Consumer Discretionary
177T. Rowe Price GroupTROW0.116183    179.21Financials
178Sempra EnergySRE0.115592    137.57Utilities
179Amphenol Corporation Class AAPH0.115416    67.34Information Technology
180Constellation Brands Inc. Class ASTZ0.115285    238.38Consumer Staples
181PPG Industries Inc.PPG0.11516    171.00Materials
182Agilent Technologies Inc.A0.114711    133.64Health Care
183MSCI Inc. Class AMSCI0.114682    485.77Financials
184DexCom Inc.DXCM0.113826    386.00Health Care
185Parker-Hannifin CorporationPH0.113723    313.81Industrials
186Simon Property Group Inc.SPG0.113696    121.60Real Estate
187Biogen Inc.BIIB0.113437    267.35Health Care
188Bank of New York Mellon CorporationBK0.113391    50.00Financials
189IHS Markit Ltd.INFO0.113376    107.58Industrials
190Marriott International Inc. Class AMAR0.112756    148.99Consumer Discretionary
191Prudential Financial Inc.PRU0.112753    100.36Financials
192Travelers Companies Inc.TRV0.110205    154.66Financials
193Aptiv PLCAPTV0.109534    143.36Consumer Discretionary
194Schlumberger NVSLB0.109152    27.02Energy
195Allstate CorporationALL0.108686    127.00Financials
196Synopsys Inc.SNPS0.107982    247.06Information Technology
197O’Reilly Automotive Inc.ORLY0.107793    554.96Consumer Discretionary
198Cummins Inc.CMI0.106657    252.04Industrials
199Walgreens Boots Alliance IncWBA0.106136    53.10Consumer Staples
200General Mills Inc.GIS0.10541    60.86Consumer Staples
201Xcel Energy Inc.XEL0.104724    71.30Utilities
202Cadence Design Systems Inc.CDNS0.104486    132.50Information Technology
203Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc.ZBH0.104185    177.16Health Care
204Corteva IncCTVA0.103489    48.76Materials
205Southwest Airlines Co.LUV0.103225    62.84Industrials
206Marathon Petroleum CorporationMPC0.102425    55.70Energy
207Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.ALXN0.102145    168.68Health Care
208eBay Inc.EBAY0.101717    55.90Consumer Discretionary
209Monster Beverage CorporationMNST0.101615    97.23Consumer Staples
210Hilton Worldwide Holdings IncHLT0.101582    129.50Consumer Discretionary
211Carrier Global Corp.CARR0.101245    43.58Industrials
212International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.IFF0.100602    142.17Materials
213Yum! Brands Inc.YUM0.100134    119.52Consumer Discretionary
214Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyADM0.099609    63.50Consumer Staples
215Phillips 66PSX0.099439    80.91Energy
216Centene CorporationCNC0.098893    61.76Health Care
217Discover Financial ServicesDFS0.098442    114.00Financials
218Aflac IncorporatedAFL0.097443    53.73Financials
219Corning IncGLW0.097418    44.21Information Technology
220Stanley Black & Decker Inc.SWK0.094576    209.02Industrials
221Kinder Morgan Inc Class PKMI0.094467    17.02Energy
222D.R. Horton Inc.DHI0.094251    98.35Consumer Discretionary
223TransDigm Group IncorporatedTDG0.093614    613.74Industrials
224AutoZone Inc.AZO0.091808    1,464.12Consumer Discretionary
225Skyworks Solutions Inc.SWKS0.091562    181.60Information Technology
226SBA Communications Corp. Class ASBAC0.091445    299.72Real Estate
227First Republic BankFRC0.091429    183.24Financials
228Xilinx Inc.XLNX0.09137    128.03Information Technology
229Pioneer Natural Resources CompanyPXD0.091125    153.83Energy
230ANSYS Inc.ANSS0.090195    365.66Information Technology
231Otis Worldwide CorporationOTIS0.090023    77.87Industrials
232Willis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyWLTW0.089807    261.14Financials
233Motorola Solutions Inc.MSI0.089758    188.30Information Technology
234Paychex Inc.PAYX0.089489    97.49Information Technology
235PACCAR IncPCAR0.089476    89.51Industrials
236Public Service Enterprise Group IncPEG0.089429    63.85Utilities
237Welltower Inc.WELL0.089118    75.10Real Estate
238AMETEK Inc.AME0.088707    134.93Industrials
239Rockwell Automation Inc.ROK0.087279    264.26Industrials
240Mettler-Toledo International Inc.MTD0.087249    1,313.32Health Care
241Cintas CorporationCTAS0.086919    345.14Industrials
242Verisk Analytics IncVRSK0.086167    188.20Industrials
243Ball CorporationBLL0.085937    93.64Materials
244Valero Energy CorporationVLO0.085833    73.96Energy
245Ameriprise Financial Inc.AMP0.08547    258.40Financials
246Fastenal CompanyFAST0.085218    52.28Industrials
247McKesson CorporationMCK0.084905    187.56Health Care
248ResMed Inc.RMD0.084888    188.50Health Care
249WEC Energy Group IncWEC0.084763    97.17Utilities
250SVB Financial GroupSIVB0.08462    563.00Financials
251Williams Companies Inc.WMB0.083728    24.36Energy
252Weyerhaeuser CompanyWY0.083186    39.10Real Estate
253Delta Air Lines Inc.DAL0.083063    46.81Industrials
254State Street CorporationSTT0.082416    83.95Financials
255Eversource EnergyES0.081909    86.15Utilities
256Fifth Third BancorpFITB0.081238    40.65Financials
257Lennar Corporation Class ALEN0.080919    103.99Consumer Discretionary
258CBRE Group Inc. Class ACBRE0.080198    85.20Real Estate
259V.F. CorporationVFC0.080193    87.95Consumer Discretionary
260Kroger Co.KR0.079184    36.50Consumer Staples
261American Water Works Company Inc.AWK0.078641    154.49Utilities
262Equifax Inc.EFX0.077937    229.23Industrials
263LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB0.07761    103.74Materials
264Keysight Technologies IncKEYS0.077481    144.35Information Technology
265Best Buy Co. Inc.BBY0.076507    116.69Consumer Discretionary
266Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.AJG0.076441    144.95Financials
267Dollar Tree Inc.DLTR0.076186    114.90Consumer Discretionary
268DTE Energy CompanyDTE0.075894    140.02Utilities
269Kraft Heinz CompanyKHC0.07584    41.49Consumer Staples
270Kansas City SouthernKSU0.075128    292.21Industrials
271AvalonBay Communities Inc.AVB0.074989    192.00Real Estate
272Zebra Technologies Corporation Class AZBRA0.074502    487.74Information Technology
273Fortinet Inc.FTNT0.074391    204.74Information Technology
274Consolidated Edison Inc.ED0.073718    77.84Utilities
275Copart Inc.CPRT0.07334    124.51Industrials
276Laboratory Corporation of America HoldingsLH0.073127    265.87Health Care
277Maxim Integrated Products Inc.MXIM0.073024    94.00Information Technology
278Etsy Inc.ETSY0.073016    199.89Consumer Discretionary
279Realty Income CorporationO0.07263    69.21Real Estate
280CDW Corp.CDW0.072211    178.59Information Technology
281Fortive Corp.FTV0.071025    72.45Industrials
282Equity ResidentialEQR0.070759    74.23Real Estate
283Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.ODFL0.069773    257.81Industrials
284Nucor CorporationNUE0.068922    81.96Materials
285ViacomCBS Inc. Class BVIAC0.06841    41.05Communication Services
286Expedia Group Inc.EXPE0.068283    176.60Consumer Discretionary
287Synchrony FinancialSYF0.067737    43.85Financials
288Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC0.06758    178.24Materials
289Hershey CompanyHSY0.067539    164.30Consumer Staples
290West Pharmaceutical Services Inc.WST0.067499    325.00Health Care
291FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.FLT0.067355    287.72Information Technology
292Northern Trust CorporationNTRS0.066888    113.80Financials
293Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.HIG0.06687    65.96Financials
294United Rentals Inc.URI0.066318    319.07Industrials
295ONEOK Inc.OKE0.065687    52.20Energy
296Clorox CompanyCLX0.065639    182.49Consumer Staples
297Cerner CorporationCERN0.06476    75.21Health Care
298Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.ARE0.064104    181.10Real Estate
299International Paper CompanyIP0.064094    58.00Materials
300Tyson Foods Inc. Class ATSN0.063934    77.45Consumer Staples
301Qorvo Inc.QRVO0.063429    188.65Information Technology
302McCormick & Company IncorporatedMKC0.063297    90.36Consumer Staples
303PPL CorporationPPL0.063167    29.10Utilities
304Martin Marietta Materials Inc.MLM0.062769    353.12Materials
305Republic Services Inc.RSG0.062658    106.30Industrials
306Edison InternationalEIX0.062651    59.45Utilities
307Tractor Supply CompanyTSCO0.062174    187.51Consumer Discretionary
308VeriSign Inc.VRSN0.061345    218.77Information Technology
309Teradyne Inc.TER0.061344    124.75Information Technology
310Entergy CorporationETR0.061097    109.29Utilities
311Western Digital CorporationWDC0.06107    70.60Information Technology
312Occidental Petroleum CorporationOXY0.061034    25.36Energy
313Dover CorporationDOV0.061012    149.00Industrials
314Carnival CorporationCCL0.060923    27.99Consumer Discretionary
315CarMax Inc.KMX0.060756    133.68Consumer Discretionary
316KeyCorpKEY0.059979    21.76Financials
317Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.HPE0.059553    15.96Information Technology
318Generac Holdings Inc.GNRC0.059484    324.50Industrials
319Regions Financial CorporationRF0.059178    21.79Financials
320Church & Dwight Co. Inc.CHD0.05913    85.74Consumer Staples
321Trimble Inc.TRMB0.058915    81.00Information Technology
322Hess CorporationHES0.058842    74.51Energy
323Ameren CorporationAEE0.058803    84.84Utilities
324Ventas Inc.VTR0.058672    55.46Real Estate
325Garmin Ltd.GRMN0.058155    137.24Consumer Discretionary
326Caesars Entertainment IncCZR0.058142    97.99Consumer Discretionary
327M&T Bank CorporationMTB0.057827    157.69Financials
328FirstEnergy Corp.FE0.057503    37.80Utilities
329Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.TTWO0.057044    175.50Communication Services
330Xylem Inc.XYL0.056824    110.65Industrials
331Las Vegas Sands Corp.LVS0.056402    61.25Consumer Discretionary
332Cooper Companies Inc.COO0.056225    410.89Health Care
333Citizens Financial Group Inc.CFG0.056108    46.28Financials
334Albemarle CorporationALB0.054866    169.05Materials
335Teleflex IncorporatedTFX0.054665    422.48Health Care
336Seagate Technology PLCSTX0.054578    94.05Information Technology
337Paycom Software Inc.PAYC0.054304    384.41Information Technology
338Extra Space Storage Inc.EXR0.053641    148.69Real Estate
339Ingersoll Rand Inc.IR0.053593    49.41Industrials
340Darden Restaurants Inc.DRI0.053483    144.00Consumer Discretionary
341W.W. Grainger Inc.GWW0.053066    433.54Industrials
342Catalent IncCTLT0.052998    112.47Health Care
343MarketAxess Holdings Inc.MKTX0.052855    488.46Financials
344Waters CorporationWAT0.052715    299.87Health Care
345Expeditors International of Washington Inc.EXPD0.052696    109.86Industrials
346Nasdaq Inc.NDAQ0.052541    161.54Financials
347Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc.BR0.052469    158.63Information Technology
348AES CorporationAES0.052449    27.82Utilities
349Essex Property Trust Inc.ESS0.052196    290.52Real Estate
350Royal Caribbean GroupRCL0.052162    87.05Consumer Discretionary
351Amcor PLCAMCR0.05212    11.75Materials
352Ulta Beauty IncULTA0.051999    329.00Consumer Discretionary
353CMS Energy CorporationCMS0.051759    64.39Utilities
354Healthpeak Properties Inc.PEAK0.051203    34.34Real Estate
355STERIS PlcSTE0.051017    211.02Health Care
356Genuine Parts CompanyGPC0.050956    124.97Consumer Discretionary
357Enphase Energy Inc.ENPH0.050839    139.55Information Technology
358Halliburton CompanyHAL0.050791    19.62Energy
359Conagra Brands Inc.CAG0.050678    37.09Consumer Staples
360Celanese CorporationCE0.050553    156.65Materials
361Akamai Technologies Inc.AKAM0.05038    108.74Information Technology
362AmerisourceBergen CorporationABC0.050155    120.80Health Care
363Avery Dennison CorporationAVY0.050031    214.17Materials
364Omnicom Group IncOMC0.050013    82.26Communication Services
365Cardinal Health Inc.CAH0.049994    60.34Health Care
366Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc.MAA0.049909    157.33Real Estate
367Arista Networks Inc.ANET0.049604    315.17Information Technology
368Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.J0.04941    133.61Industrials
369Gartner Inc.IT0.049299    195.88Information Technology
370Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedDGX0.04924    131.88Health Care
371NVR Inc.NVR0.048779    5,018.10Consumer Discretionary
372Tyler Technologies Inc.TYL0.04859    424.86Information Technology
373IDEX CorporationIEX0.04858    224.20Industrials
374Duke Realty CorporationDRE0.048182    46.52Real Estate
375NetApp Inc.NTAP0.048021    74.69Information Technology
376United Airlines Holdings Inc.UAL0.047986    54.25Industrials
377Hologic Inc.HOLX0.047884    65.40Health Care
378Pool CorporationPOOL0.047588    422.52Consumer Discretionary
379Teledyne Technologies IncorporatedTDY0.04697    447.75Industrials
380Cincinnati Financial CorporationCINF0.046911    112.68Financials
381Masco CorporationMAS0.046863    64.64Industrials
382MGM Resorts InternationalMGM0.046591    40.80Consumer Discretionary
383Principal Financial Group Inc.PFG0.0457    63.87Financials
384Raymond James Financial Inc.RJF0.045488    130.78Financials
385Domino’s Pizza Inc.DPZ0.045301    423.00Consumer Discretionary
386Viatris Inc.VTRS0.045258    13.33Health Care
387Kellogg CompanyK0.044809    62.42Consumer Staples
388Incyte CorporationINCY0.044665    85.38Health Care
389PulteGroup Inc.PHM0.044633    59.40Consumer Discretionary
390Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN0.044451    115.39Materials
391Huntington Bancshares IncorporatedHBAN0.04425    15.33Financials
392Monolithic Power Systems Inc.MPWR0.044212    360.00Information Technology
393Citrix Systems Inc.CTXS0.044177    123.89Information Technology
394L Brands Inc.LB0.0437    65.90Consumer Discretionary
395FMC CorporationFMC0.043645    118.24Materials
396Boston Properties Inc.BXP0.043536    109.35Real Estate
397Diamondback Energy Inc.FANG0.042793    81.80Energy
398Whirlpool CorporationWHR0.04213    236.01Consumer Discretionary
399Baker Hughes Company Class ABKR0.04202    20.08Energy
400Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationWAB0.041715    82.07Industrials
401WestRock CompanyWRK0.041575    55.75Materials
402PerkinElmer Inc.PKI0.04104    129.63Health Care
403ABIOMED Inc.ABMD0.040998    320.73Health Care
404Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc.FBHS0.040831    104.98Industrials
405DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.XRAY0.04074    67.52Health Care
406J.M. Smucker CompanySJM0.040585    130.99Consumer Staples
407Evergy Inc.EVRG0.0404    63.97Utilities
408J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.JBHT0.040312    169.16Industrials
409Textron Inc.TXT0.040212    64.24Industrials
410Devon Energy CorporationDVN0.040148    23.46Energy
411Brown-Forman Corporation Class BBF.B0.04003    76.28Consumer Staples
412Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG0.039924    147.65Materials
413PTC Inc.PTC0.039445    130.94Information Technology
414Alliant Energy CorpLNT0.038836    56.17Utilities
415Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class ABIO0.038736    628.82Health Care
416Quanta Services Inc.PWR0.038339    96.64Industrials
417UDR Inc.UDR0.038292    46.45Real Estate
418Wynn Resorts LimitedWYNN0.038098    128.69Consumer Discretionary
419Penn National Gaming Inc.PENN0.038075    89.25Consumer Discretionary
420Leidos Holdings Inc.LDOS0.037742    101.28Industrials
421CenterPoint Energy Inc.CNP0.037741    24.49Utilities
422Tapestry Inc.TPR0.03735    47.82Consumer Discretionary
423Advance Auto Parts Inc.AAP0.037042    200.16Consumer Discretionary
424American Airlines Group Inc.AAL0.036781    21.74Industrials
425Hormel Foods CorporationHRL0.036708    46.87Consumer Staples
426LKQ CorporationLKQ0.036642    47.26Consumer Discretionary
427C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.CHRW0.03659    97.08Industrials
428Snap-on IncorporatedSNA0.036511    237.60Industrials
429Host Hotels & Resorts Inc.HST0.036483    18.16Real Estate
430Lumen Technologies Inc.LUMN0.036458    12.82Communication Services
431Atmos Energy CorporationATO0.036114    103.59Utilities
432NortonLifeLock Inc.NLOK0.035925    21.61Information Technology
433Loews CorporationL0.035899    55.75Financials
434Hasbro Inc.HAS0.035518    99.40Consumer Discretionary
435Fox Corporation Class AFOXA0.03544    37.40Communication Services
436Mohawk Industries Inc.MHK0.035261    207.12Consumer Discretionary
437Howmet Aerospace Inc.HWM0.035201    31.96Industrials
438Mosaic CompanyMOS0.035143    35.20Materials
439Interpublic Group of Companies Inc.IPG0.035123    31.75Communication Services
440Jack Henry & Associates Inc.JKHY0.035046    162.83Information Technology
441Allegion PLCALLE0.034937    134.38Industrials
442Live Nation Entertainment Inc.LYV0.033383    82.15Communication Services
443BorgWarner Inc.BWA0.033227    48.58Consumer Discretionary
444Lincoln National CorporationLNC0.033108    64.13Financials
445Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.LW0.033099    80.50Consumer Staples
446F5 Networks Inc.FFIV0.032965    187.00Information Technology
447Iron Mountain Inc.IRM0.032606    39.73Real Estate
448Universal Health Services Inc. Class BUHS0.032454    148.41Health Care
449DISH Network Corporation Class ADISH0.03146    44.45Communication Services
450W. R. Berkley CorporationWRB0.031302    79.72Financials
451Cboe Global Markets IncCBOE0.031092    104.37Financials
452Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.NCLH0.030896    31.10Consumer Discretionary
453Everest Re Group Ltd.RE0.030571    276.95Financials
454Western Union CompanyWU0.030434    25.70Information Technology
455Pentair plcPNR0.030368    64.51Industrials
456CF Industries Holdings Inc.CF0.029802    48.63Materials
457Comerica IncorporatedCMA0.02945    75.85Financials
458Molson Coors Beverage Company Class BTAP0.029315    54.95Consumer Staples
459Henry Schein Inc.HSIC0.029214    72.65Health Care
460Invesco Ltd.IVZ0.029185    27.00Financials
461News Corporation Class ANWSA0.029102    26.20Communication Services
462Newell Brands IncNWL0.028609    26.80Consumer Discretionary
463Regency Centers CorporationREG0.028355    63.66Real Estate
464Robert Half International Inc.RHI0.028195    87.61Industrials
465NiSource IncNI0.027925    26.02Utilities
466Globe Life Inc.GL0.02758    102.49Financials
467Campbell Soup CompanyCPB0.02748    47.78Consumer Staples
468Nielsen Holdings PlcNLSN0.026445    25.65Industrials
469Pinnacle West Capital CorporationPNW0.026427    84.65Utilities
470Discovery Inc. Class CDISCK0.02628    31.85Communication Services
471Zions Bancorporation N.A.ZION0.026123    55.80Financials
472A. O. Smith CorporationAOS0.025996    67.75Industrials
473Marathon Oil CorporationMRO0.025986    11.35Energy
474Kimco Realty CorporationKIM0.025749    21.07Real Estate
475Assurant Inc.AIZ0.025429    155.60Financials
476NRG Energy Inc.NRG0.025074    35.97Utilities
477Juniper Networks Inc.JNPR0.024268    25.39Information Technology
478Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.HII0.024061    212.32Industrials
479Alaska Air Group Inc.ALK0.024001    69.14Industrials
480DXC Technology Co.DXC0.023881    33.10Information Technology
481Franklin Resources Inc.BEN0.023582    30.00Financials
482IPG Photonics CorporationIPGP0.023364    217.11Information Technology
483Rollins Inc.ROL0.023356    37.28Industrials
484DaVita Inc.DVA0.023195    116.53Health Care
485PVH Corp.PVH0.022753    113.18Consumer Discretionary
486People’s United Financial Inc.PBCT0.022487    18.15Financials
487FLIR Systems Inc.FLIR0.022329    59.50Information Technology
488Federal Realty Investment TrustFRT0.022026    112.84Real Estate
489APA Corp.APA0.021927    20.10Energy
490Sealed Air CorporationSEE0.021616    49.40Materials
491Hanesbrands Inc.HBI0.020822    21.06Consumer Discretionary
492Vornado Realty TrustVNO0.020377    45.75Real Estate
493Gap Inc.GPS0.019715    33.10Consumer Discretionary
494Cabot Oil & Gas CorporationCOG0.019202    16.69Energy
495Leggett & Platt IncorporatedLEG0.018943    49.67Consumer Discretionary
496Ralph Lauren Corporation Class ARL0.018216    133.29Consumer Discretionary
497Discovery Inc. Class ADISCA0.01721    37.77Communication Services
498NOV Inc.NOV0.016734    14.95Energy
499Unum GroupUNM0.016647    28.26Financials
500Fox Corporation Class BFOX0.015887    36.00Communication Services
501Perrigo Co. PlcPRGO0.015702    41.63Health Care
502HollyFrontier CorporationHFC0.015037    35.18Energy
503Under Armour Inc. Class AUAA0.012948    24.31Consumer Discretionary
504Under Armour Inc. Class CUA0.011058    19.91Consumer Discretionary
505News Corporation Class BNWS0.008424    24.31Communication Services

上位企業の割高性は・・?

上位企業であるGAFAM・テスラはPERが凄く高まっています。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Apple Inc.AAPL5.910605    131.52Information
Technology
29.55
2Microsoft
Corporation
MSFT5.34397    252.20Information
Technology
34.37
3Amazon.com Inc.AMZN4.169166    3,467.48Consumer
Discretionary
65.97
4Facebook Inc. Class AFB2.224082    324.65Communication
Services
27.84
5Alphabet Inc. Class AGOOGL2.01915    2,355.00Communication
Services
31.36
6Alphabet Inc. Class CGOOG1.965323    2,412.75Communication
Services
32.12
7Berkshire Hathaway
Inc. Class B
BRK.B1.485208    274.95Financials15.47
8Tesla IncTSLA1.458706    710.00Consumer
Discretionary
710.86
9JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM1.328814    153.59Financials12.20
10Johnson & JohnsonJNJ1.21115    163.00Health Care28.75

PERがどれも凄い事になってます。管理人が「割高の犯人」と疑っていたGAFAM/TESLAですがどれもPER27超えです。とくにテスラ(TSLA)は目を疑う710です!明らかにS&P500平均の22は、これらが押し上げていると考えられます。

PERが高い=将来の売上成長を見越してすでに株価が高くなっているという事です。つまり売上成長が相応にないといけませんよね。とくにテスラは他の主要自動車メーカの合計より高い時価総額になっていて、実際PER710と超高水準でして、相当将来への期待が織り込まれています。PERがかりに20だとすると、今の株価は1/35とならないといけません。若しくは利益額が35倍にふえないといけない。でも利益35倍なんて、それだけ競合他社からシェアを奪っても達成できるとは思えません(他の自動車メーカーの合計利益よりも高くなるからです)。いくら太陽光パネル販売でも成功してると言っても、競合も多いのでこのまま伸びる保証はありません。

GAFAMやテスラなどのグロース株はPER高くてもいいのでは?
 > よくありません。シーゲル博士が検証したデータだと、グロース株と目され急成長してきたIBMは、低成長だったがPER割安だったスタンダードオイル社にリターンで負けています。そのほかにもPERの高さでリターン比較すると、低PER株>市場平均>高PER株だったことも解っています。
 > グロース株といえども、PERは高くてもいいわけではないです。

GAFAM・テスラのようなグロース株が非常識に割高(高PER)で、しかも高PER株はグロース株といえどもリターンをもたらさない。そうすると、GAFAM・テスラのようなグロース株を含まない買い方をした方がいい、という事になります。じゃあGAFAM・テスラを含まない指数やETFはあるのか・・・沢山ありますよ!

【高値掴みしない】GAFAM・テスラを含まないETF商品

GAFAM・テスラというのは「低配当か無配」「連続増配が短く10年未満(マイクロソフトのみ19年)」「セクターがヘルスケア・生活必需品・エネルギーに存在しない」という特徴があります。こういう特徴をもつETF銘柄をリストアップします。これだと比較的、高値掴みしにくいのではないでしょうか?

HDV:米国の高配当株指数に連動したETF

・・・高配当でないGAFAM・テスラは入れない。セクターも将来有望とされるエネルギー・生活必需品・ヘルスケアのウエイトがかなり大きくなる。エクソン・AT&T、シェブロンはPERが出ていないが赤字だった為。株価はかなり低迷していて、でも5%超えの高配当なのでかなりの割安株となっているのです。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Exxon Mobil CorpXOM11.82% 57.24Energy
2AT&T IncT8.31% 31.44Communication
Services
3Johnson & JohnsonJNJ6.96% 162.73Health Care28.75
4Chevron CorpCVX6.95% 103.07Energy
5Verizon Communications IncVZ5.91% 57.79Communication
Services
12.67
6Procter & Gamble CoPG4.51% 133.42Consumer
Staples
24.53
7Pfizer IncPFE4.28% 38.65Health Care22.64
8Cisco Systems IncCSCO3.87% 50.91Information
Technology
21.3
9Coca-Cola CoKO3.68% 53.98Consumer
Staples
32.32
10Merck & Co IncMRK3.40% 74.5Health Care26.91

VIG:米国株で連続増配10年以上の株式に連動したETF

・・・連続増配の短いGAFA・テスラは入れない(マイクロソフトのみ19年なので入る)。GAFA/テスラ抜きでもPERは高めで、現在は割高で手出し無用と思います。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1JPMorgan Chase & CoJPM3.92% 153.81Financials12.2
2Johnson & JohnsonJNJ3.86% 162.73Health Care28.75
3Microsoft CorpMSFT3.84% 252.18Information
Technology
34.37
4Walmart IncWMT3.43% 139.91Consumer
Staples
29.45
5UnitedHealth Group IncUNH3.15% 398.8Health Care22.67
6Visa Inc Class AV3.07% 233.56Information
Technology
48.28
7Procter & Gamble CoPG2.98% 133.42Consumer
Staples
24.53
8The Home Depot IncHD2.94% 323.67Consumer
Discretionary
27.11
9Comcast Corp Class ACMCSA2.21% 56.15Communication
Services
22.19
10Coca-Cola CoKO2.03% 53.98Consumer
Staples
32.32

VHT:ヘルスケア指数に連動したETF

・・・ヘルスケアセクターにGAFAM・テスラは存在しない。でも他の銘柄もことごとく割高化しています。いくらリターン最良のヘルスケアセクタといえども、高すぎます。今買うにはオススメしません。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Johnson & JohnsonJNJ8.01% 162.73Health Care28.75
2UnitedHealth Group IncUNH6.54% 398.8Health Care22.67
3Abbott LaboratoriesABT3.93% 120.08Health Care37.62
4Pfizer IncPFE3.73% 38.65Health Care22.64
5Merck & Co IncMRK3.61% 74.5Health Care26.91
6AbbVie IncABBV3.54% 111.5Health Care38.28
7Thermo Fisher
Scientific Inc
TMO3.35% 470.23Health Care29.46
8Eli Lilly and CoLLY2.98% 182.77Health Care27.36
9Medtronic PLCMDT2.94% 131.5Health Care57.95
10Amgen IncAMGN2.68% 239.64Health Care19.85

VDC:生活必需品指数に連動したETF

・・・生活必需品セクターにGAFAM・テスラは存在しない

しかしコロナ禍で売上減・EPS減したのかPERはどれも高めです。まともに低いのはたばこ株のPM、MOだけです。だったらたばこ株単品買いした方が高値掴みしないよって話です。いまETFで買う価値は無いように思います。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Procter & Gamble CoPG14.16% 132.51Consumer
Staples
24.53
2Coca-Cola CoKO8.88% 54.26Consumer
Staples
32.32
3PepsiCo IncPEP8.02% 143.94Consumer
Staples
26.69
4Walmart IncWMT7.95% 139.91Consumer
Staples
29.45
5Costco Wholesale CorpCOST5.65% 373.54Consumer
Staples
38.05
6Philip Morris
International Inc
PM4.51% 95.09Consumer
Staples
17.15
7Altria Group IncMO3.98% 47.75Consumer
Staples
20.48
8Mondelez International
Inc Class A
MDLZ3.80% 60.91Consumer
Staples
23.03
9The Estee Lauder
Companies Inc Class A
EL2.93% 316.75Consumer
Staples
124.18
10Colgate-Palmolive CoCL2.92% 79.82Consumer
Staples
25.95

VDE:エネルギー指数に連動したETF

・・・エネルギーセクターにGAFAM・テスラは存在しない。コロナショックでの人の移動激減で、原油安を喰らって現在大幅な株安になっています。PERは一株利益がマイナスだったり、まともな数字ではないので算出できないところがほとんど。しかし現在どこも高配当株化しているうえ、株価も近年にないくらいの安値をつけています。みんなが悲観して売っている分、安くかえるチャンスでもあります。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Exxon Mobil CorpXOM21.92% 57.24Energy
2Chevron CorpCVX18.69% 103.07Energy
3ConocoPhillipsCOP5.83% 53.13Energy
4EOG Resources IncEOG3.94% 75.93Energy
5Schlumberger LtdSLB3.38% 27.05Energy
6Phillips 66PSX3.34% 81.12Energy
7Marathon Petroleum CorpMPC3.27% 56.04Energy
8Kinder Morgan Inc Class PKMI3.16% 17.29Energy21.23
9Pioneer Natural Resources CoPXD3.10% 153.83Energy-1.21
10Valero Energy CorpVLO2.75% 73.96Energy-0.69

逆に・・GAFAM/テスラなどのグロース株に投資するなら

QQQ・・・ナスダック100指数に連動したETF。

ナスダック100指数=ハイテク株の割合がS&P500以上に高い指数です。GAFAM/テスラの割合はなんと45%超です(S&P500は21%)。それ以外にもBaidu,Alibaba,Verizon Communications,などといった名だたるハイテク銘柄ばかりが並びます。ハイテクばかりなのでやはりといいますか、PERの高いグロース株ばかりです。

#CompanySymbolWeight      PriceSectorPER
1Apple IncAAPL11.149    131.52Information
Technology
29.55
2Microsoft CorpMSFT9.608    252.20Information
Technology
34.37
3Amazon.com IncAMZN8.821    3,467.48Consumer
Discretionary
65.97
4Tesla IncTSLA4.257    710.00Consumer
Discretionary
710.86
5Alphabet IncGOOG3.988    2,412.75Communication
Services
31.36
6Facebook IncFB3.95    324.65Communication
Services
27.84
7Alphabet IncGOOGL3.576    2,355.00Communication
Services
32.12
8NVIDIA CorpNVDA2.861    600.07Information
Technology
9PayPal Holdings IncPYPL2.361    263.01Information
Technology
10Comcast CorpCMCSA1.973    56.17Communication
Services
Slickchartsより引用

・・・何度も言いますが上位企業のPERはまともじゃない数値なので、長期投資(バイ&ホールド)を勧める管理人は、オススメしていません。

管理人の行動例

●クレカ積立で月50000円ずつ買っていたS&P500投資信託(eMaxis Slim 米国株式S&P500)を、積立解除しました。

 ➡S&P500のPERが18を切ったら(≒指数が3200位まで落ちたら)、また積立開始する予定です。

●買っていい株は悲観売されているVDE、メンソールタバコ禁止で割安になったたばこ株、割安化している製薬株いくつかのみとしました。

 ※製薬株の選び方は、こちらを参照ください。

【セクター戦略】製薬会社のランキング・一覧と将来性(管理人独断・2021年4月)
2020年末時点の各社パラメータ順位社名ティッカー国売上PER配当利回り連続増配利益率1ノバルティスNVSスイス48,65924.823.5%20.3%2ロシュRHHBYスイス47,48019.332.7%30.7%3ジョ...

●最近給与振り込み>>投資額となっているので、現金保有額がふえています。これは「金融引き締め・利上げ」と聞いた時、すばやく割安化した株を買う為です。

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