主張：配当貴族銘柄は、安全高リターンな投資先です
「配当貴族」に当たる銘柄は、安全で高リターンをのぞめます。
なぜなら今までのリターンが、歴史上ずっと「市場平均＜配当貴族のみ平均」だったからです。
具体的な例を出すと、「配当貴族指数(S&P500銘柄のうちで配当貴族の平均)」は、ずっと「S&P500指数」よりリターンがよかったのです。この例については、次の項で紹介いたします。
●配当貴族➡25年以上、配当金を増額or減額しなかった(増やし続けた)銘柄のことです。人ではありません。
●配当貴族指数(SPDAUDP)➡配当貴族銘柄だけを集めた、平均値です。
理由：配当貴族がどうして安全なのか？
●リターンが高い
●不況時の値下がりが小さい
●実は増配の余地が一番大きい(反論への理解、を参照)
具体例：配当貴族指数 VS S&P500指数 のリターン
実際に比較してみると、配当貴族指数はS&P500 (市場平均値)に勝るのでオススメです。
青＝S&P500配当貴族指数
黒＝S&P500指数
オレンジ＝S&P Japan500 となります。
日本は比較で入れました。日本の成長力は、やはり残念ですね。この10年はアベノミクスで盛り返してはいますが、米国の成長力にはかないません。そりゃそうです、日本企業は(他国企業に比べると)内向的であまり海外展開しないし、内需も人口減少・高齢化で衰えてきていますからね。
言えること①：リターンが高い
10年リターンがとてもいいです。ほぼ全ての期間で、配当貴族指数が勝っています。
言えること②：ショック耐性も強い(不況でも落ち方小さい)
不況の時の落ち方も小さいです。
具体例として、2018年12月のアップルショック・2020年3月のコロナショックの時のグラフ。配当貴族指数のほうが、グラフの谷が浅いです。
(株式用語では「底堅い」といいます)
何がいいかと言うと、たとえ不況で急な出費の際も、配当貴族指数のほうが還元性が多く現金化できるということです。
配当貴族銘柄の例
配当貴族×米国株
成長力の高い米国マーケットで、成長力のいい配当貴族ともなると鬼に金棒です。
しかし、あまりにも数が多いです。138社もあります。
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Industry |
| Artesian Resources | ARTNA | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| American States Water | AWR | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| California Water Service | CWT | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| Middlesex Water Co. | MSEX | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| SJW Corp. | SJW | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| Essential Utilities Inc. | WTRG | Utilities | Water Utilities |
| Black Hills Corp. | BKH | Utilities | Multi-Utilities |
| Consolidated Edison | ED | Utilities | Multi-Utilities |
| MDU Resources | MDU | Utilities | Multi-Utilities |
| Atmos Energy | ATO | Utilities | Gas Utilities |
| National Fuel Gas | NFG | Utilities | Gas Utilities |
| Northwest Natural Gas | NWN | Utilities | Gas Utilities |
| UGI Corp. | UGI | Utilities | Gas Utilities |
| MGE Energy Inc. | MGEE | Utilities | Electric Utilities |
| NextEra Energy Inc. | NEE | Utilities | Electric Utilities |
| Essex Property Trust | ESS | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Federal Realty Inv. Trust | FRT | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| National Retail Properties | NNN | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Tanger Factory Outlet Centers | SKT | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Urstadt Biddle Properties | UBA | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Universal Health Realty Trust | UHT | Real Estate | Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| Nucor Corp. | NUE | Materials | Metals & Mining |
| AptarGroup Inc. | ATR | Materials | Containers & Packaging |
| Sonoco Products Co. | SON | Materials | Containers & Packaging |
| Albemarle Corp. | ALB | Materials | Chemicals |
| Air Products & Chem. | APD | Materials | Chemicals |
| Ecolab Inc. | ECL | Materials | Chemicals |
| H.B. Fuller Company | FUL | Materials | Chemicals |
| Linde Plc | LIN | Materials | Chemicals |
| PPG Industries Inc. | PPG | Materials | Chemicals |
| RPM International Inc. | RPM | Materials | Chemicals |
| Stepan Company | SCL | Materials | Chemicals |
| Sherwin-Williams Co. | SHW | Materials | Chemicals |
| Automatic Data Proc. | ADP | Information Technology | IT Services |
| Computer Services Inc. | CSVI | Information Technology | IT Services |
| International Business Machines | IBM | Information Technology | IT Services |
| Jack Henry & Associates | JKHY | Information Technology | IT Services |
| Badger Meter Inc. | BMI | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components |
| W.W. Grainger Inc. | GWW | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors |
| Canadian National Railway | CNI | Industrials | Road & Rail |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | Industrials | Machinery |
| Donaldson Company | DCI | Industrials | Machinery |
| Dover Corp. | DOV | Industrials | Machinery |
| Franklin Electric Co. | FELE | Industrials | Machinery |
| Gorman-Rupp Company | GRC | Industrials | Machinery |
| Illinois Tool Works | ITW | Industrials | Machinery |
| Lincoln Electric Holdings | LECO | Industrials | Machinery |
| Nordson Corp. | NDSN | Industrials | Machinery |
| Parker-Hannifin Corp. | PH | Industrials | Machinery |
| Pentair Ltd. | PNR | Industrials | Machinery |
| Stanley Black & Decker | SWK | Industrials | Machinery |
| Tennant Company | TNC | Industrials | Machinery |
| Carlisle Companies | CSL | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates |
| 3M Company | MMM | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates |
| Roper Technologies Inc. | ROP | Industrials | Industrial Conglomerates |
| Emerson Electric | EMR | Industrials | Electrical Equipment |
| ABM Industries Inc. | ABM | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| Brady Corp. | BRC | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| Cintas Corp. | CTAS | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| Matthews International | MATW | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| McGrath Rentcorp | MGRC | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| MSA Safety Inc. | MSA | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies |
| A.O. Smith Corp. | AOS | Industrials | Building Products |
| Expeditors International | EXPD | Industrials | Air Freight & Logistics |
| General Dynamics | GD | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| Raytheon Technologies | RTX | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals |
| Becton Dickinson & Co. | BDX | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies |
| Medtronic plc | MDT | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies |
| Stryker Corp. | SYK | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies |
| West Pharmaceutical Services | WST | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies |
| Northeast Indiana Bancorp | NIDB | Financials | Thrifts & Mortgage Finance |
| AFLAC Inc. | AFL | Financials | Insurance |
| Brown & Brown Inc. | BRO | Financials | Insurance |
| Chubb Limited | CB | Financials | Insurance |
| Cincinnati Financial | CINF | Financials | Insurance |
| Erie Indemnity Company | ERIE | Financials | Insurance |
| Mercury General Corp. | MCY | Financials | Insurance |
| Old Republic International | ORI | Financials | Insurance |
| RLI Corp. | RLI | Financials | Insurance |
| RenaissanceRe Holdings | RNR | Financials | Insurance |
| Franklin Resources | BEN | Financials | Capital Markets |
| Eaton Vance Corp. | EV | Financials | Capital Markets |
| SEI Investments Company | SEIC | Financials | Capital Markets |
| S&P Global Inc. | SPGI | Financials | Capital Markets |
| Thomson Reuters Corp. | TRI | Financials | Capital Markets |
| T. Rowe Price Group | TROW | Financials | Capital Markets |
| Arrow Financial Corp. | AROW | Financials | Banks |
| BancFirst Corp. OK | BANF | Financials | Banks |
| Commerce Bancshares | CBSH | Financials | Banks |
| Community Bank System | CBU | Financials | Banks |
| Cullen/Frost Bankers | CFR | Financials | Banks |
| Chesapeake Financial Shares | CPKF | Financials | Banks |
| Community Trust Banc. | CTBI | Financials | Banks |
| Enterprise Bancorp Inc. | EBTC | Financials | Banks |
| Eagle Financial Services | EFSI | Financials | Banks |
| Farmers & Merchants Bancorp | FMCB | Financials | Banks |
| People’s United Financial | PBCT | Financials | Banks |
| PSB Holdings Inc. | PSBQ | Financials | Banks |
| Southside Bancshares | SBSI | Financials | Banks |
| 1st Source Corp. | SRCE | Financials | Banks |
| First Financial Corp. | THFF | Financials | Banks |
| Tompkins Financial Corp. | TMP | Financials | Banks |
| United Bankshares Inc. | UBSI | Financials | Banks |
| UMB Financial Corp. | UMBF | Financials | Banks |
| Westamerica Bancorp | WABC | Financials | Banks |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| NACCO Industries | NC | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| ExxonMobil Corp. | XOM | Energy | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels |
| Altria Group Inc. | MO | Consumer Staples | Tobacco |
| Universal Corp. | UVV | Consumer Staples | Tobacco |
| Colgate-Palmolive Co. | CL | Consumer Staples | Household Products |
| Clorox Company | CLX | Consumer Staples | Household Products |
| Kimberly-Clark Corp. | KMB | Consumer Staples | Household Products |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Consumer Staples | Household Products |
| Archer Daniels Midland | ADM | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| Hormel Foods Corp. | HRL | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| Lancaster Colony Corp. | LANC | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| McCormick & Co. | MKC | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| Tootsie Roll Industries | TR | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| Sysco Corp. | SYY | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing |
| Wal-Mart Inc. | WMT | Consumer Staples | Food & Staples Retailing |
| Brown-Forman Class B | BF-B | Consumer Staples | Beverages |
| Coca-Cola Company | KO | Consumer Staples | Beverages |
| PepsiCo Inc. | PEP | Consumer Staples | Beverages |
| VF Corp. | VFC | Consumer Discretionary | Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods |
| Lowe’s Companies | LOW | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail |
| Ross Stores Inc. | ROST | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail |
| Target Corp. | TGT | Consumer Discretionary | Multiline Retail |
| Polaris Industries | PII | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products |
| Leggett & Platt Inc. | LEG | Consumer Discretionary | Household Durables |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure |
| Genuine Parts Co. | GPC | Consumer Discretionary | Distributors |
| Weyco Group Inc. | WEYS | Consumer Discretionary | Distributors |
| Telephone & Data Sys. | TDS | Communication Services | Wireless Telecommunication Services |
| John Wiley & Sons Inc. | JW-A | Communication Services | Media |
| AT&T Inc. | T | Communication Services | Diversified Telecommunication Services |
●ちなみに別記事で挙げた「ディフェンシブ株(で成長力の高い物)」は、Sector11分類が「Consumer Staples」「Health Care」となっているものです。
「配当貴族銘柄(連続増配25年～)」×「米国株」×「ディフェンシブ株」ともなれば、鬼に金棒ですよね。
配当貴族×英国株
英国も米国ほどではありませんが、成長力は高めです。なぜなら英国企業も、世界展開を積極的で内需＜外需となっているからです。
そして英国株は、米国株でかかる現地課税10%が、かかりません。つまり配当金の受取額は72%ではなく、80％になるんです。こういう意味でも、オススメです！
| Company | Ticker | Sector | Industry |
| WPP PLC | WPP | Communication Services | Media Agencies |
| Bloomsbury Publishing Plc | BMY | Communication Services | Publishing |
| Young & Co’s Brewery Plc | YNGA | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants & Bars |
| Domino’s Pizza Group PLC. | DOM | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants & Bars |
| Compass Group plc | CPG | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants & Bars |
| Cranswick plc | CWK | Consumer Staples | Food Products |
| Diageo plc | DEO | Consumer Staples | Distillers & Vintners |
| PZ Cussons plc | PZC | Consumer Staples | Personal Products |
| Bunzl plc | BNZL | Consumer Staples | Food Distribution |
| Mears Group PLC | MER | Consumer Staples | Business Support Services |
| Unilever plc | UL | Consumer Staples | Household & Personal Products |
| BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS Common Stock | BTI | Consumer Staples | Tobacco |
| Imperial Brands PLC | IMB | Consumer Staples | Tobacco |
| A.G. Barr plc | BAG | Consumer Staples | Soft Drinks |
| Caledonia Investments plc | CLDN | Financials | Equity Investment Instruments |
| City of London Investment Trust plc | CTY | Financials | Equity Investment Instruments |
| Bankers Investment Trust PLC | BNKR | Financials | Equity Investment Instruments |
| Invesco Income Growth Trust plc | IVI | Financials | Equity Investment Instruments |
| Personal Group Holdings plc | PGH | Financials | Insurance Brokers |
| TR European Growth Trust PLC | TRG | Financials | Equity Investment Instruments |
| Genus plc | GNS | Health Care | Biotechnology |
| Spirax-Sarco Engineering plc | SPX | Industrials | Industrial Machinery |
| Rotork p.l.c. | ROR | Industrials | Industrial Machinery |
| Croda International Plc | CRDA | Industrials | Specialty Chemicals |
| James Fisher & Sons plc | FSJ | Industrials | Transportation Services |
| J Smart & Co (Contractors) PLC | SMJ | Industrials | Heavy Construction |
| Ultra Electronics Holdings plc | ULE | Industrials | Defense |
| Diploma PLC | DPLM | Industrials | Industrial Suppliers |
| Victrex plc | VCT | Industrials | Specialty Chemicals |
| Johnson Matthey PLC | JMAT | Materials | Specialty Chemicals |
| Derwent London Plc | DLN | Real Estate | Industrial & Office REITs |
| Highcroft Investments plc | HCFT | Real Estate | Diversified REITs |
| Primary Health Properties PLC | PHP | Real Estate | Specialty REITs |
| Spectris plc | SXS | Technology | Electrical Components & Equipment |
| Halma plc | HLMA | Technology | Electronic Equipment |
| DEWHURST/PAR VTG FPD 0.1 | DWHT | Technology | Electrical Components & Equipment |
| The Sage Group plc | SGE | Technology | Software – Application |
| SSE PLC | SSE | Utilities | Conventional Electricity |
配当貴族×日本株
「花王」1社だけです。日本企業はちょっと業績悪くなれば、あっさり減配するからです。かぶぬしが物言わない文化で、企業も「株主＜自分たちの給料・退職金」と考えているからですね。
その数少ない例外が、花王・いちご・小林製薬・三菱UFJリースなどなんです。彼らは株主を守ってくれます。
反論への理解
連続増配株なんて、増配しつづけてこれ以上は増配しないだろう、と考えがちです。
※U.S. Dividend Champions サイトより抜粋・筆者加工
ですがアメリカ株を調査すると、このような結果がでています。配当貴族は配当性向が最も低く59.1%。つまりあと41%も、増配の余地があるのです。むしろ連続増配5~9年グループのほうが余裕少ない。
利益率も、配当貴族が最もよくて23%もあります。つまり効率よく稼げているから、増配し続けられる。
「連続増配を25年、30年とやってもう余地はない」という考えは、(グラフ見ての通り)実は全く逆なんです。
ネット時代なんだから「(連続増配していないけど)GAFAが強い、凄い成長だから」ともお考えでしょう。たしかに2000～2020年は彼らは、軒なみ10倍以上になっています。ですが、彼らはスマホ普及の波に乗って世界展開で成長しきった10年間でした。展開しきって、中国・韓国・台湾製のスマホ・パソコンが競争相手になっています。通販サイトも増えてきて、競合が起こっています。世界人口が増えているとはいえ、増える材料はだいぶ出尽くしてしまっています。
おわりに
私は大昔から持っていたユニリーバ100株をみて、どうして増えるんだろうと疑問に思いました。それでふと研究してみると、増えて当然のデータがいろいろと出てきて、面白いなと思いました。
連続増配×米国株 は、自信をもってオススメできます。客観的なデータで裏打ちされています。
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